Covid Update

 I have guided my behavior through all of this with a personal risk assessment for any possible scenario.

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

Early in the pandemic when school was closed, I stayed in my house for two months and had groceries delivered to me.  That now sounds silly, but it really wasn't.  In March through May of 2020, around 10% to 33% of locals wore masks in stores.  I did not wish to be around the many people who weren't masking.  Staying at home was the right decision at that time.

In the summer, I began going to the store once per week at 7 AM.  I found that at least 80% of customers wore masks.  As the summer progressed into fall, the percent increased to 95%.  At the current time, mask usage in Walmart early in the morning is consistently at least 95%.  I feel comfortable going in there.  I tend to avoid a certain local grocery store, because the mask usage is a good bit lower.  I also avoid most stores, just to keep possible exposure to a minimum.

I have been particularly worried about the virus because of my autoimmune thyroid disease.  Autoimmune diseases are a curse because the people who don't have them think that the people who do are exaggerating or imagining their symptoms. 

Even knowing that, I was still a bit surprised last year when I saw that no autoimmune diseases are considered risk factors for Covid-19.  I know that autoimmunity is a significant risk factor, even if they don't. 

I find it just a small consolation that this month, the American College of Rheumatology acknowledged the risk to those with autoimmunity:

"Although there is limited data from large population-based studies, it appears that patients with autoimmune and inflammatory conditions are at a higher risk for developing hospitalized COVID-19 compared to the general population and have worse outcomes associated with infection," said Dr. Jeffrey Curtis, chair of the ACR COVID-19 Vaccine Clinical Guidance Task Force. "Based on this concern, the benefit of COVID-19 vaccination outweighs any small, possible risks for new autoimmune reactions or disease flare after vaccination."

Of course I've been right to be worried about the virus.

It's been a race against time to get vaccinated.  I have grown increasingly concerned as the weeks have passed, and more people have become lax about masks.  For the vast majority of our citizens, the wait is far from over.  

I did get the first shot of the Moderna vaccine on Monday.  I'm confident that I'm having an autoimmune flare caused by the vaccine.  I won't know for a few more days whether the flare will worsen.  Right now I consider it between mild and moderate, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being a moderate flare.  It's worth it, however.  I would rather have an autoimmune flare than have Covid-19.  Besides, I have autoimmune flares at least four to six times per year, I'm quite used to them.  They are annoying, but I can handle them.

According to the New York Times, the Moderna vaccine is about 50% effective after two weeks.  That would be on March 8 for me.  I weigh the risk as I consider whether to start selling again on March 13, which is the first day of spring break.  

I will be more than 50% immune by March 13, and I can go to the post office when it first opens each day during spring break.  With my usual precautions, my risk will be low during spring break.  

On  March 22, I will be around 70% immune.  That is when I might have to begin going into the post office in the late afternoon when it is extremely busy, probably with people not wearing masks.  I am weighing the risks.  I'm really hesitant about resuming going into any public place in the late afternoon.  I have avoided doing that since spring break of 2020.  I'm not sure I want to break that rule just yet.